This paper by Toby Ord explores the fundamental causal limits on how much of the universe we can observe or affect. It distinguishes four principal regions: the affectable universe, the observable universe, the eventually observable universe, and the ultimately observable universe. It then shows how these (and other) causal limits set physical bounds on what […]

Scientific and technological progress might change people’s capabilities or incentives in ways that would destabilize civilization. This paper introduces the concept of a vulnerable world: roughly, one in which there is some level of technological development at which civilization almost certainly gets devastated by default, i.e. unless it has exited the “semi-anarchic default condition”.

The UK government must act now to ensure the UK is prepared for future extreme risks even greater than Covid-19, a new report finds. Disease warfare, leaks of dangerous pathogens from high-security labs, and misuse of artificial intelligence (AI) systems are identified as key threats to the UK and the wider world. The report, Future […]

Jan Brauner (DPhil Scholar) and Mrinank Sharma (DPhil Affiliate) published Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19 in Science. The paper currently has the 7th highest attention score (measured by Altmetric) of all Science publications.

The UN’s latest Human Development Report features a 7-page piece by Toby Ord on existential risk and the protection of humanity’s longterm potential. Toby said of the piece: I’ve long admired the HDR, and referred to it often when I worked on global poverty. So it’s great to be able to give something back, and […]